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Chance: Certain, Likely & Equally Likely

Quiz · Maths · Y4 OC Prep · Year 4 OC
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Work through the levels in order. Type your answer and press Check — open the worked solution if you get stuck. Answers like -6, 3/4 or 0.25 are typed exactly as shown. A ⭐ Bonus Challenge at the end is extra credit — skip it if the rest was hard work.

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Level 1 · Warm-up

1 One marble is picked from this bag without looking. Which colour is more likely: red or blue?
Show worked solution
3 red, 5 blue — blue is more likely.
2 A bag has counters numbered 1 to 10. Is it equally likely to pick an even number or an odd number?
Show worked solution
Even: 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 (five). Odd: 1, 3, 5, 7, 9 (five). Yes, equally likely.
3 A spinner has 4 equal sections: 3 red and 1 blue. How likely is landing on red?
Show worked solution
Red is 3 of the 4 sections — likely, but not certain.

Level 2 · Core

4 Counters numbered 1 to 11 are in a bag. One is picked at random. Is it more likely to be greater than 6, less than 6, or are those equally likely? (type: greater, less, or equal)
Show worked solution
Greater than 6: 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 — five. Less than 6: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 — five. The 6 is in neither group. Equally likely.
5 This spinner has 6 equal sections. Which colour is exactly twice as likely as blue?
Show worked solution
Blue 1 section, red 2, green 3. Red is twice as likely as blue.
6 A box has 16 discs: 5 red, 2 green, 8 blue and 1 yellow. How many blue discs must be taken out so that picking red and picking blue are equally likely?
Show worked solution
Red 5, blue 8. Remove 8 − 5 = 3 blue discs.

Level 3 · Challenge

7 Counters numbered 1 to 12 are in a bag. How many of them show a number that is both even AND greater than 7?
Show worked solution
Greater than 7: 8, 9, 10, 11, 12. Even ones: 8, 10, 12 — 3 counters.
8 A bag contains only red and blue counters, 24 in total. Picking red is three times as likely as picking blue. How many red counters are there?
Show worked solution
24 ÷ 4 = 6 per part. Red is 3 parts: 18.
9 Ana spins this spinner 40 times. About how many times should she expect it to land on green?
Show worked solution
Green is one eighth of the spinner (half of the last quarter). 40 ÷ 8 = 5 times.